Identify the average before reacting to its direction
The same Statistics Canada release places two-bedroom asking rents across all CMAs combined at CAD 2,130 in the second quarter of 2026, down 3.6% from a year earlier. That national metropolitan result is not a claim that every Toronto neighbourhood or dwelling type became cheaper. Asking prices come from listings; paid rents concern existing renters. The estimates are experimental, subject to revision and do not adjust away differences in apartment quality. [1]
The Toronto difference between those two published averages is CAD 490 a month. It must not be interpreted as the premium every mover pays. Different building ages, locations, inclusions and tenancy histories can all sit behind the two samples. Your current lease might be above either average, between them or below both.
CMHC's June 2026 update similarly distinguishes easing asking rents from rising rents in occupied units, with conditions differing across segments. It is useful context for a search, but neither that update nor the new quarterly release quotes a vacant unit available to you on 28 September. [2]
The older CMHC report answers a historical question
CMHC's 2025 Rental Market Report shows Toronto two-bedroom purpose-built turnover rent of CAD 2,547 for the October 2025 observation period, compared with CAD 2,612 in October 2024. Turnover refers to units with a change of tenant. These are historical survey figures, not September 2026 asking rents. [3]
It would be misleading to place that CAD 2,547 beside the newer CAD 2,650 asking-rent figure and call the difference a measured rise. The periods, populations and methods differ. Keep the date and definition attached to a figure even when a chart or headline has room for only a few words.
At this article's check date, CMHC's calendar lists its next annual Rental Market Report for 8 December 2026, subject to change. An expected report is not evidence already observed. The article will need an update when that release actually arrives. [4]
Compare your current position with a real alternative
Begin with what staying would cost over the period you expect to remain. Use your current rent and any valid, documented changes rather than replacing it with a market average. Then obtain a written offer for the candidate home, including utilities, parking, incentive conditions and the move-in date.
Ontario's published rent-increase guideline is 2.1% for 2026 and 1.9% for 2027. It does not cover every unit or every circumstance. The province's guidance discusses exemptions, including many units first occupied for residential purposes after 15 November 2018, and the usual requirements of at least twelve months between increases and 90 days' written notice. Verify how those rules apply to the particular tenancy before treating a guideline as your future increase. [5]
A fixed term ending does not by itself mean an Ontario tenant must leave or sign a new fixed term. The Landlord and Tenant Board explains the continuation of covered tenancies on a monthly or weekly basis when appropriate. Check your own notice and tenancy circumstances before assuming that moving is the only available choice. [6]
A fictional move can lose money at twelve months and save it at twenty-four
Suppose staying costs CAD 2,400 a month in rent. A different fictional home costs CAD 2,250, but adds CAD 50 a month in transport spending. Assume all other recurring costs are equal. The net monthly saving is CAD 100, not CAD 150.
Moving creates CAD 1,800 in one-time incremental expenses: CAD 900 for movers, CAD 600 for overlapping occupancy, and CAD 300 for setup and other nonrefundable costs. These are invented amounts, not Toronto price estimates. Both rents and the transport difference remain unchanged across the model, so the example is a sensitivity exercise rather than a rent forecast.
| Included amount | Stay 12 months | Move 12 months | Stay 24 months | Move 24 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | 28,800 | 27,000 | 57,600 | 54,000 |
| Extra transport after moving | 0 | 600 | 0 | 1,200 |
| One-time moving expenses | 0 | 1,800 | 0 | 1,800 |
| Total included costs | 28,800 | 29,400 | 57,600 | 57,000 |
At twelve months, moving costs CAD 600 more. At twenty-four months, it costs CAD 600 less. The simple break-even period is CAD 1,800 divided by CAD 100: eighteen months. Leaving earlier, paying more for the move or receiving a different rent increase can change the result.
If additional transport instead costs CAD 150 monthly, it uses the entire rent saving. There is then no recurring saving to recover the CAD 1,800 move. If the original CAD 100 saving holds but moving costs rise to CAD 2,400, break-even moves to twenty-four months. Run these small changes before relying on a single attractive total.
Separate cash needed now from costs over time
A last-month rent deposit is a timing issue as well as a cash requirement. Ontario's tribunal guide explains that a rent deposit is applied to the final rental period. Do not count the same rent once as a deposit and again as an additional permanent expense when calculating the whole tenancy. [6]
A move can still need substantial cash before the monthly saving begins. Make a separate calendar of deposit dates, the final rent at the old home, the first rent at the new home and confirmed overlap. The table above counts occupancy costs and incremental expenses; it does not claim to show the bank balance required on moving day.
- Compare the same bedroom count, area and essential facilities.
- Replace estimated utilities and parking with written inclusions where possible.
- Keep commute time separate from transport spending; decide how much extra travel your household can tolerate.
- Show uncertain renewal prices and unconfirmed incentives as scenarios.
- Recalculate for the period you realistically expect to stay.
The whole-cost housing guide explains the broader budget. Our free-rent payment-calendar example shows how an incentive changes timing and averages, though its lease discussion is U.S.-specific.
Method and limits: No household lease, rent notice or moving quote was authenticated. Published averages are research context. The fictional comparison supplies a method for using your own documents and should not be read as evidence that staying or moving is generally the better choice.
Read the underlying guidance.
- Quarterly rent statistics, second quarter 2026Statistics Canada · checked 2026-09-28. September 9 release: Q2 asking and paid rents, scope, experimental status and quality caveat.
- 2026 Mid-Year Rental Market UpdateCMHC · checked 2026-09-28. June 9, 2026 update separates asking-rent easing from occupied-rent increases.
- 2025 Rental Market ReportCMHC · checked 2026-09-28. Historical Toronto purpose-built two-bedroom turnover rents, October periods only.
- CMHC Reports CalendarCMHC · checked 2026-09-28. Annual report next release listed December 8, 2026; subject to change.
- Residential rent increasesOntario Government · checked 2026-09-28. 2026 and 2027 guidelines, notice/timing and exemptions; not a universal cap.
- A Guide to the Residential Tenancies ActLandlord and Tenant Board, Tribunals Ontario · checked 2026-09-28. Continuation after fixed term and last-period use of rent deposit.
Source and arithmetic checks by the producing AI, followed by a separate AI editorial review. Human English editing and subject-specialist review have not been completed. Private lease and notice, current matched unit offers and moving quotes; Ontario legal and human English review.
